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Development and validation of a multidimensional prognostic index for one-year mortality from comprehensive geriatric assessment in hospitalized older patients.

Pilotto A, Ferrucci L, Franceschi M, D'Ambrosio LP, Scarcelli C, Cascavilla L, Paris F, Placentino G, Seripa D, Dallapiccola B, Leandro G

Geriatric Unit, Department of Medical Sciences & Gerontology and Geriatrics Laboratory, Research Department, IRCCS Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza, San Giovanni Rotondo, Italy.

ABSTRACT Our objective was to construct and validate a Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) for 1-year mortality from a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) routinely carried out in elderly patients in a geriatric acute ward. The CGA included clinical, cognitive, functional, nutritional, and social parameters and was carried out using six standardized scales and information on medications and social support network, for a total of 63 items in eight domains. A MPI was developed from CGA data by aggregating the total scores of the eight domains and expressing it as a score from 0 to 1. Three grades of MPI were identified: low risk, 0.0-0.33; moderate risk, 0.34-0.66; and severe risk, 0.67-1.0. Using the proportional hazard models, we studied the predictive value of the MPI for all causes of mortality over a 12-month follow-up period. MPI was then validated in a different cohort of consecutively hospitalized patients. The development cohort included 838 and the validation cohort 857 elderly hospitalized patients. Of the patients in the two cohorts, 53.3 and 54.9% were classified in the low-risk group, respectively (MPI mean value, 0.18 +/- 0.09 and 0.18 +/- 0.09); 31.2 and 30.6% in the moderate-risk group (0.48 +/- 0.09 and 0.49 +/- 0.09); 15.4 and 14.2% in the severe-risk group (0.77 +/- 0.08 and 0.75 +/- 0.07). In both cohorts, higher MPI scores were significantly associated with older age (p = 0.0001), female sex (p = 0.0001), lower educational level (p = 0.0001), and higher mortality (p = 0.0001). In both cohorts, a close agreement was found between the estimated mortality and the observed mortality after both 6 months and 1 year of follow-up. The discrimination of the MPI was also good, with a ROC area of 0.751 (95%CI, 0.70-0.80) at 6 months and 0.751 (95%CI, 0.71-0.80) at 1 year of follow-up. We conclude that this MPI, calculated from information collected in a standardized CGA, accurately stratifies hospitalized elderly patients into groups at varying risk of mortality.

Published 18 February 2008 in Rejuvenation Res, 11(1): 151-61.
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